Cell Phone Heaven?

Cell Phone Heaven?

Wireless number portability to start / Changing carriers could prove to be problematic

Like millions of Americans, Canton, Mass., attorney Steve Rosen is counting the days until a new federal policy lets him keep his existing cell phone number when he switches wireless carriers.

The Nov. 24 start of wireless number portability is expected to roil the competitive U.S. wireless sector. Surveys estimate that 25 percent or more of the nation's 150 million cell phone owners hope to switch carriers once they don't need to get a new number. . . .

When they make the switch, subscribers will not be able to use their new phone for incoming calls for anywhere from two to 24 hours. Opportunities to switch a landline home or business number to a wireless phone account will be sharply limited.

And the change takes effect Nov. 24 only in the 100 largest U.S. metro areas. Residents of other areas will have to wait until May.

Industry analysts and wireless executives worry consumer expectations may be too high. "There is not a chance that this will be a smooth transition for customers considering taking their number from one carrier to another in the first few weeks," said Eddie Hold, vice president of telecom services for Current Analysis Inc., a Sterling, Va., consulting firm.

"Many consumers that try this switch will find that they are in wireless limbo without a number for hours and potentially longer. My advice would be to hold out for a few weeks until the carriers have got initial kinks out of the systems," Hold said. . . .

"You'll see carriers having to compete harder on the value of the offer and the quality of service, just like in other service businesses," he said. He predicted some firms will make their customers go through hoops to terminate service. . . .

The Management Network Group, a national telecom consulting firm based in Boston and Kansas, estimates that up to 15 percent of all attempts to switch an existing phone number will fail. If an agent mistypes a single letter or digit in a customer's name and address, computerized systems will reject the transfer, the consultant said.

The group estimates that 30 million U.S. cell phone owners will want to move a phone number to another carrier in the next 12 months. They include 18 million who choose a new carrier because they can now keep their old number and another 12 million who would switch wireless carriers anyway -- for reasons such as lower price, better coverage or a more attractive phone.
Keeping the old number

Rosen, the Canton lawyer, estimates that hundreds of clients have his current phone number in connection with real estate ventures, a law practice and a wireless accessories business. Being able to keep the old number "is a good part of what's persuading me to make the move," Rosen said.

Many analysts forecast that Verizon Wireless, the largest U.S. carrier, with 34 million subscribers, will be a big net gainer because of its reputation for reliability. Nextel's DirectConnect walkie-talkie feature may make the carrier attractive to many businesses. Carriers with a high monthly subscriber loss, such as Cingular, Sprint and T-Mobile, are seen as the most vulnerable.